The stretch of coast from Shouson Hill through Deep Water Bay, Repulse Bay, Chung Hom Kok and Stanley to Tai Tam is usually discussed through its trophy sales. Registered transaction records for the three months to 15 September 2026 show something more useful: 43 residential sales and 36 lettings, spread across price bands that behave in very different ways. This piece reads those bands one at a time, compares them with what is currently on the market, and sets out three scenarios for the rest of 2026. It is market analysis, not investment advice.
How the last three months break down
Across the six districts, and excluding car park transactions, the window from 16 June to 15 September 2026 produced 43 sale records and 36 letting records. On the sale side, 11 fell between HK$15 million and HK$30 million, 9 between HK$30 million and HK$50 million, and 23 above HK$50 million. Nothing residential traded below HK$15 million. On the letting side, 22 of 36 fell between HK$40,000 and HK$80,000 a month, 7 between HK$80,000 and HK$120,000, and 6 above HK$120,000.
The median unit price in each band, which we calculated from the individual records, is where the district gives itself away. The HK$15 to 30 million band ran at a median of HK$19,685 per square foot saleable and the HK$30 to 50 million band at HK$21,429 — barely eight per cent apart. Above HK$50 million the median jumps to HK$35,694, roughly two-thirds higher. Below HK$50 million, in other words, more money buys more floor area; above it, money buys a different class of asset altogether — houses, new-build stock and harbourfront frontage.
The lettings market repeats the pattern even more starkly. Median unit rent was HK$46 per square foot in the HK$40,000 to HK$80,000 band and HK$45 in the HK$80,000 to HK$120,000 band — effectively identical. Only above HK$120,000 does it step up, to HK$69. A tenant moving from HK$60,000 to HK$100,000 a month on the Southside is buying square feet, not a better address.
Buying: the three bands
HK$15 to 30 million: small, old, and the only band with no recorded losses
Eleven sales. The cheapest residential transaction in the whole window was a two-bedroom of 850 sq ft saleable at South Bay Garden, recorded at HK$15.88 million on 13 July 2026 (HK$18,682 per square foot, 7 per cent above its previous sale). The lowest unit price was a 1,367 sq ft ground-floor flat at a low-rise Repulse Bay address at HK$18.38 million on 4 August 2026, or HK$13,446 per square foot. At the other end of the band, two-bedroom units at One Stanley were recorded at HK$23.98 million and HK$23.42 million on 4 September 2026, both around HK$28,100 to HK$28,400 per square foot for 834 to 844 sq ft.
The band’s most repeated address is Pacific View in Tai Tam: 1,397 sq ft units at HK$27.5 million on 28 August 2026 (HK$19,685 per square foot, 42 per cent above the previous sale) and at HK$26 million on both 7 July and 17 June 2026 (HK$18,611). Three sales of the same size within ten weeks at a spread of under 6 per cent is the clearest pricing signal in the district. Hong Kong Parkview also sits in this band: a 1,031 sq ft two-bedroom at HK$23 million on 2 July 2026 (HK$22,308, up 14 per cent).
HK$30 to 50 million: the three-bedroom family band
Nine sales, and eight of them were three-bedroom flats. Hong Kong Parkview accounted for four: 1,624 sq ft at HK$34.8 million on 8 September 2026 (HK$21,429, up 13 per cent), 1,622 sq ft at HK$34.5 million on 7 July 2026 (HK$21,270, up 17 per cent), 1,505 sq ft at HK$33 million on 5 August 2026 (HK$21,927, up 159 per cent) and 1,441 sq ft at HK$39 million on 31 July 2026 (HK$27,065, up 18 per cent). A Repulse Bay low-rise recorded 1,749 sq ft at HK$37.5 million on 19 August 2026 (HK$21,441) and 2,094 sq ft at HK$43 million on 26 June 2026 (HK$20,535). The outlier is One Stanley, where 1,171 sq ft went at HK$42.75 million on 4 September 2026 — HK$36,507 per square foot, some 70 per cent above the band median.
Every resale in this band and the one below it that could be compared with a previous sale was recorded at a gain, ranging from 4 to 159 per cent. Not one loss.
Above HK$50 million: bigger gains, and all of the losses
Twenty-three sales, more than half the total. Houses dominate: One Stanley recorded HK$118 million for 3,034 sq ft on 2 September 2026 and HK$268 million for 4,706 sq ft on 7 July 2026, a Shouson Hill house went at HK$183 million for 2,801 sq ft on 17 June 2026, and a Shek O-facing address recorded HK$220 million for 4,814 sq ft on 22 June 2026. The highest unit price in the window was a 4,022 sq ft duplex at HK$322 million on 28 July 2026 — HK$80,000 per square foot.
The most instructive sequence is at Hong Kong Parkview, where three flats of identical 2,626 sq ft size in the same block traded in six weeks: HK$63.9 million on 30 July (HK$24,334), HK$69.8 million on 11 August (HK$26,580) and HK$74 million on 31 August 2026 (HK$28,180). On our own calculation that is a 15.8 per cent rise in unit price across three sales of the same product inside a month. Set against that, all three recorded losses in the window sit in this band: 2,429 sq ft at HK$73 million on 15 July 2026, down 21 per cent on the previous sale; 1,917 sq ft at HK$65 million on 30 June 2026, down 6 per cent; and 2,049 sq ft at HK$55 million on 24 June 2026, down 9 per cent. The top of the Southside is where both the upside and the downside actually happen.
| Band | Records (16 Jun to 15 Sep 2026) | Median per sq ft | Recorded losses |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sale HK$15 to 30M | 11 | HK$19,685 | 0 |
| Sale HK$30 to 50M | 9 | HK$21,429 | 0 |
| Sale above HK$50M | 23 | HK$35,694 | 3 |
| Let HK$40 to 80K | 22 | HK$46 | — |
| Let HK$80 to 120K | 7 | HK$45 | — |
| Let above HK$120K | 6 | HK$69 | — |
Renting: the three bands
The HK$40,000 to HK$80,000 band carried 22 of the 36 lettings and is dominated by two Tai Tam estates. Redhill Peninsula recorded 1,013 sq ft two-bedrooms at HK$48,000 on 10 September 2026 (HK$47 per square foot) and at HK$40,000 on 6 September 2026 (HK$39) — the same size, HK$8,000 apart, four days apart. Pacific View let 1,674 sq ft at HK$68,000 on 15 August 2026 and at HK$65,000 on 15 July 2026, 1,397 sq ft at HK$66,000 on 25 August and HK$62,000 on 1 July, and 1,077 sq ft at HK$42,800 on 17 August. Hong Kong Parkview let 1,045 sq ft at HK$52,000 on 25 July 2026 and 1,031 sq ft at HK$50,000 on 1 July 2026. At the top of the band, a 1,441 sq ft three-bedroom there went at HK$78,000 on 22 June 2026.
The HK$80,000 to HK$120,000 band had seven records and is mostly the same estates in larger sizes: 1,390 sq ft at HK$80,500 on 1 September 2026 (HK$58 per square foot) and 1,775 sq ft at HK$86,000 on 30 August 2026 (HK$48) at a Repulse Bay estate, 2,049 sq ft twice at HK$91,500 and HK$92,000 on 25 August and 22 July 2026 (HK$45 both times), 2,584 sq ft at HK$100,000 on 1 August 2026 (HK$39) and 2,534 sq ft at HK$108,000 on 9 September 2026 (HK$43). Note that the largest units in this band let at a lower unit rent than the smallest units in the band below.
Above HK$120,000 the market changes. A 1,975 sq ft flat on Repulse Bay Road let at HK$138,000 on 9 September 2026 (HK$70 per square foot), a 1,826 sq ft unit at One Stanley at HK$150,000 on 17 August 2026 (HK$82) and a 1,892 sq ft Repulse Bay flat at HK$193,000 on 1 August 2026 — HK$102 per square foot, the highest unit rent recorded in the window and more than double the median of the HK$40,000 to HK$80,000 band.
What is on the market right now
Reading the live listings on two major market listing platforms on 16 September 2026 gives the other half of the picture. Across the six districts, one platform carried 207 residential sale listings: roughly 31 priced at HK$15 to 30 million, 58 at HK$30 to 50 million and 120 above HK$50 million (the band counts overlap slightly at the boundaries). Its rental book was far thinner at 41 listings — 3 below HK$40,000, 15 at HK$40,000 to HK$80,000, 7 at HK$80,000 to HK$120,000 and 16 above HK$120,000. The second platform, covering Shouson Hill, Repulse Bay, Tai Tam and Stanley only, carried 34 residential sale listings and 27 rental listings, a fraction of the first platform’s coverage. A buyer searching only one platform is seeing only part of this market.
Setting listings against the recorded transaction pace gives an indicative months-of-supply figure, which we calculated ourselves from the first platform’s listing counts and the three-month record. The HK$15 to 30 million band shows roughly eight months of supply, the HK$30 to 50 million band roughly nineteen months, and the band above HK$50 million roughly sixteen months. On the letting side the HK$40,000 to HK$80,000 band shows roughly two months and the band above HK$120,000 roughly eight. This is a single platform’s book measured against recorded deals, not a complete supply count, and listings can be withdrawn, duplicated or stale — but the ranking is hard to argue with. The entry sale band and the mainstream letting band are the tight parts of this district; the HK$30 to 50 million band is the loose one.
Asking prices tell a consistent story. A 2,197 sq ft Repulse Bay flat is currently asked at HK$71 million, or HK$32,317 per square foot, against a recorded sale of the identical size in the same development at HK$68.8 million (HK$31,315) on 16 June 2026 — an asking premium of about 3 per cent on our own calculation. On the letting side, 1,390 sq ft units at one Repulse Bay estate are being asked at HK$78,000 and HK$75,000 a month, against a recorded letting of that same size at HK$80,500 on 1 September 2026. Where asking sits below the last recorded deal, the negotiating position has already moved.
Three scenarios for the rest of 2026
What follows is scenario analysis built on the patterns above, not a forecast of prices, and certainly not advice. Each scenario lists what would have to be true and what to watch.
Base case
The two sub-HK$50 million bands stay firm and thinly traded, because supply there is limited relative to the transaction pace and because no resale in either band was recorded at a loss this quarter. The HK$50 million-plus band stays two-directional, producing both large gains and occasional double-digit losses depending on the individual asset. Overall transaction volume stays close to the roughly fourteen sales and twelve lettings a month implied by the window. Watch for the HK$30 to 50 million months-of-supply figure falling below roughly a year.
Optimistic case
Rental tightness in the HK$40,000 to HK$80,000 band — around two months of visible supply — keeps pushing unit rents above HK$45 per square foot and converts some long-term tenants into buyers in the HK$15 to 30 million band. The repeat-sale pattern seen at one Repulse Bay block, where three identical units stepped up 15.8 per cent in a month, spreads to other stacks. The condition here is that letting deals keep clearing at or above the recent per-foot range rather than drifting toward asking levels that already sit below the last recorded rents.
Conservative case
The overhang above HK$50 million — roughly sixteen months of supply on one platform’s book, and the only band to record losses this quarter — forces price discovery downward, and losses there become more frequent rather than exceptional. The sub-HK$50 million bands hold up better simply because there is less of them to sell, but volume thins further as owners withdraw rather than meet the market. The trigger to watch is the ratio of recorded losses to recorded gains in the top band, which ran at three losses against four large gains in this window.
Four Southside listings worth a look
These four PropMark listings are chosen because each one can be read directly against a recorded transaction above, not because they are recommended. Verify current status, area and outgoings before acting on any of them.
HK$30 to 50 million band. Hong Kong Parkview, Repulse Bay — HK$44 million, 1,886 sq ft, 3 bedrooms, asking HK$23,330 per square foot. The same development recorded three-bedroom sales between HK$21,270 and HK$27,065 per square foot in this window, so the asking sits inside the range actually achieved rather than above it.
Entry to the HK$50 million-plus band. South Bay Towers, Repulse Bay — HK$55 million, 2,143 sq ft, 3 bedrooms, asking HK$25,665 per square foot. Compare with 2,049 sq ft recorded at HK$55 million (HK$26,842) on 24 June 2026 and 1,878 sq ft at HK$53 million (HK$28,222) on 10 August 2026 — near-identical money for materially more floor area, and well under the HK$35,694 median of its band.
HK$40,000 to HK$80,000 letting band, larger. Pacific View, Tai Tam — HK$70,000 a month, 1,534 sq ft, 3 bedrooms, asking HK$45.63 per square foot. Lettings at the same development cleared between HK$39 and HK$47 per square foot across five records this window, so this asking sits at the upper end of what has actually been paid.
HK$40,000 to HK$80,000 letting band, smaller. Hong Kong Parkview, Repulse Bay — HK$53,000 a month, 1,031 sq ft, 2 bedrooms, asking HK$51.41 per square foot. A 1,031 sq ft unit there let at HK$50,000 on 1 July 2026 and a 1,045 sq ft unit at HK$52,000 on 25 July 2026. A 1,031 sq ft flat in the same development also sold at HK$23 million on 2 July 2026, which on our own calculation puts the gross yield implied by this asking rent at about 2.8 per cent before management fees, rates, government rent and any void.
A note on the figures
All transaction figures are individual records taken from publicly available registered transaction records and market transaction records for the six districts, dated as recorded, for the period 16 June to 15 September 2026, with car park transactions excluded. They are individual transactions, not market averages. Listing counts and asking prices were read on 16 September 2026 from two market listing platforms and are live figures that change daily. Every median, ratio, months-of-supply figure, percentage step and gross yield above is our own calculation from those records, and each excludes the costs noted where it appears. Nothing here is investment advice or a valuation of any specific property.
The takeaway
Three months of records say the Southside is not one market but three, and they do not move together. Below HK$50 million the district is tight, cheap per square foot relative to its own top end, and this quarter produced no recorded loss at all — but there is very little of it, and the HK$15 to 30 million band in particular clears in roughly eight months of supply. Between HK$30 and 50 million the choice is widest and the pressure on sellers is greatest. Above HK$50 million the unit price is two-thirds higher and the outcomes are genuinely two-sided. On the letting side the HK$40,000 to HK$80,000 band is the tightest segment in the district at roughly two months of visible supply, which is why tenants in that range have found so little room to negotiate — and why the handful of askings now sitting below the last recorded rents are worth watching closely.